Chelsea will take on Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their last-16 Champions League clash on Tuesday night, with the fixture being held in Romania due to coronavirus protocols over travel.
The match is technically Atletico's home leg despite the fact that it is not taking place in Spain, with the reverse fixture due to take place in London in the middle of March.
Match preview
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Atletico remain in charge of the La Liga title race, sitting three points clear of second-placed Real Madrid at the summit with a game in hand, but Diego Simeone's side will enter this match off the back of a shock 2-0 home defeat to Levante, and they have actually only won one of their last four matches.
The Madrid giants were not at their best in the group stages of this season's Champions League, winning just two of their six Group A fixtures, but a total of nine points was enough to see them advance to this stage.
Atletico overcame Liverpool at this stage of the 2019-20 competition but surprisingly lost 2-1 to RB Leipzig in the quarter-finals; the Red and Whites have actually reached the last eight or better in five of their last seven Champions League campaigns and will be confident of overcoming Chelsea.
The La Liga club have reached two Champions League and three Europa League finals in the last 11 seasons, meanwhile, and have been victorious in nine of their 11 two-legged knockout contests with English teams.
Tuesday's contest in Romania will be the first time that they have locked horns with Chelsea since the group stages of the 2017-18 Champions League, with the English club winning 2-1 in Madrid before the points were shared in a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge.
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Chelsea, meanwhile, comfortably progressed to the last-16 stage of the tournament, finishing top of Group E having picked up 14 points from their six games against Sevilla, Krasnodar and Rennes.
The Blues also progressed to the round of 16 last season but were comfortably beaten 7-1 by eventual winners Bayern Munich, while they have only actually won five of their last 11 matches in this competition.
The London giants have played 11 two-legged knockout ties with Spanish opposition and recorded just four victories, while they have won just two of their last 11 away knockout fixtures against La Liga clubs in UEFA competition, but the fact that this game is not taking place in Madrid should help them.
Chelsea will enter Tuesday's match off the back of a 1-1 draw with Southampton in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon, which made it seven games unbeaten under their new head coach.
Thomas Tuchel led Paris Saint-Germain to last season's Champions League final, ultimately losing to Bayern, and the 47-year-old will be desperate to continue his positive start at the helm.
Atletico Madrid Champions League form: LWDDDW
Atletico Madrid form (all competitions): WWDWDL
Chelsea Champions League form: DWWWWD
Chelsea form (all competitions): WWWWWD
Team News
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Atletico will be without the services of key defender Jose Gimenez, who limped off the field against Levante in La Liga on Saturday having suffered a recurrence of a muscular problem.
Stefan Savic missed the league contest through suspension but should replace Gimenez in the starting XI for this game, joining Mario Hermoso and Felipe in a defensive position.
The La Liga outfit will also be without Yannick Carrasco, who has a muscular issue, while Sime Vrsaljko has lost his battle to prove his fitness, with neither player in the squad.
Hector Herrera is also unavailable following a recent positive coronavirus test, but Luis Suarez and Joao Felix are both available and should start in the final third of the field.
As for Chelsea, Thiago Silva again missed out against Southampton on Saturday due to a muscular problem, and Tuchel has confirmed that the veteran centre-back will not be available for this game either.
Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic have both travelled following recent issues, though, while Tammy Abraham is available, having overcome an ankle injury to lead the line against Southampton.
Tuchel is not expected to make many changes from the side that lined up at St Mary's, with Timo Werner and Mason Mount again likely to support Abraham through the middle.
N'Golo Kante could get the nod over Mateo Kovacic alongside Jorginho, while Marcos Alonso could again keep out Ben Chilwell, with the Spaniard working his way back into the side under Tuchel.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Felipe, Hermoso; Llorente, Kondogbia, Koke, Saul, Lodi; Felix, Suarez
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Mendy; Azpilicueta, Christensen, Rudiger; James, Kante, Jorginho, Alonso; Mount, Abraham, Werner
We say: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Chelsea
Atletico will be desperate to secure a first-leg advantage ahead of a trip to London next month, and we can see the La Liga leaders edging a tight game. Chelsea are yet to ignite in the final third of the field since the change of manager, and we are finding it difficult to back the Premier League side to triumph, but a 2-1 defeat, securing a vital away goal in the process, would leave the contest delicately poised.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.71%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 26.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 0-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
