After putting in a fine away display in Finland last week, we think that Plzen will utilise home advantage to claim a comfortable win on Tuesday that would set up a third qualifying round tie against Maribor or Sheriff Tiraspol. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Viktoria Plzen win with a probability of 43.24%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Viktoria Plzen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Viktoria Plzen would win this match.

Result
Viktoria Plzen	Draw	HJK Helsinki
43.24% ( 0.02)	24.22% ( -0.01)	32.54% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 59.6% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.14% (

0.03)

42.86% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.73% (

0.03)

65.26% (

-0.03)

Viktoria Plzen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80% (

0.02)

20% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.81% (

0.04)

52.18% (

-0.03)

HJK Helsinki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.49% (

0.01)

25.5% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.65% (

0.01)

60.35% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Viktoria Plzen 43.24%

HJK Helsinki 32.54%

Draw 24.21%

Viktoria Plzen	Draw	HJK Helsinki
2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.21% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.61% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.84% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.54% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.95% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0) Other @ 3% Total : 43.24%	1-1 @ 11.21% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.17% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.21%	1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.97% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.76% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.49% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.19% 2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 32.54%