Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 5, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
3 - 1
Celtic

Nkunku (27'), Silva (64', 77')
Kampl (54')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jota (47')
O'Riley (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between RB Leipzig and Celtic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: RB Leipzig 4-0 VfL Bochum
Saturday, October 1 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Celtic

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Celtic 2-1 Motherwell
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

Goals
for

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Celtic

Both sides will be aware that defeat on Wednesday would significantly hinder their chances of progression to the Champions League knockout rounds. The potential absence of key defender Carter-Vickers would be a blow for Celtic, but even if the American is fit to feature, we can see Leipzig edging past their Glaswegian counterparts to claim all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Celtic had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.62%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Celtic win was 1-2 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	Celtic
39.67% ( 0.11)	24.23% ( 0)	36.09% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 60.48% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.89% (

-0.03)

42.1% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.49% (

-0.03)

64.51% (

0.03)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.68% (

0.04)

21.32% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.73% (

0.07)

54.27% (

-0.07)

Celtic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.87% (

-0.08)

23.13% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43% (

-0.11)

56.99% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 39.67%

Celtic 36.09%

Draw 24.23%

RB Leipzig	Draw	Celtic
2-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.66% Total : 39.67%	1-1 @ 11.15% 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.99% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.25% Total : 36.09%