Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 20.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.55%) and 2-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for a Lincoln Red Imps win it was 1-2 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qarabag FK would win this match.
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