Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 38.78%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 37.23% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.22%) and 0-2 (5.6%). The likeliest Marseille win was 2-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.