Brentford and Swansea City square off in the Championship playoff final on Saturday as both clubs look to earn a lucrative promotion to the Premier League.
The Bees came from behind to see off Bournemouth in the last four, while the Swans largely controlled their two-legged tie with surprise contenders Barnsley.
Match preview
© Reuters
When Brentford went 2-0 behind on aggregate against Bournemouth, Thomas Frank would have been deeply concerned that another year of promise was about to end with nothing to show for it.
However, helped by the Cherries being reduced to 10 men, Frank's side stormed back to edge their way into their second successive playoff final.
Brentford initially struggled to shake off the disappointment of last summer when they started this campaign, but they are fully deserving of their spot at Wembley Stadium.
A 21-match unbeaten streak got the London outfit back into contention for automatic promotion, while it took another 12-game period without defeat to eventually secure third spot.
Despite having a number of selection dilemmas to contend with over the next 48 hours, Frank will have full confidence that this group of players can learn from the mistakes which were made last season.
© Reuters
Like their opponents, Swansea were once strong contenders for the top two, the majority of their results coming from possessing the best defensive record in the division.
Their resoluteness at the back weakened as the campaign progressed, but Steve Cooper and his players eventually avoided the embarrassment of missing out on the top six altogether.
While they ended the season with six defeats in 11, the Welsh side looked something close to their former selves in dispatching a well-oiled Barnsley team in the semi-finals.
Cooper watched on nervously as the Tykes threatened a late comeback at the Liberty Stadium, but the head coach will now be satisfied that his players came through some difficult moments ahead of their upcoming contest.
Both fixtures during the regular campaign ended in 1-1 draws, and it would come as a surprise to no-one if a third hard-fought contest played out at the weekend.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Frank must decide whether to hand a recall to Marcus Forss, who got on the scoresheet having been introduced as a substitute against Bournemouth.
However, that change came after the Cherries had been reduced to 10 men, so Bryan Mbeumo may get the nod ahead of the Finland international.
Providing that Christian Norgaard does not come back into contention after sustaining an injury last week, the starting XI could stay the same.
Swansea will be without Wayne Routledge, who sustained a serious knee injury during the second leg against Barnsley.
Cooper must decide whether to include Liam Cullen down the middle of the attack or revert back to the 3-4-1-2 formation which was used successfully earlier this season.
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Dalsgaard, Jansson, Pinnock; Rasmussen, Jensen, Janelt, Canos; Marcondes, Mbeumo; Toney,
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Cabango, Guehi, Bidwell; Fulton, Grimes, Hourihane; Ayew, Routledge, Lowe
We say: Brentford 2-1 Swansea City
With both teams keen on having the majority of possession, the first hour of this contest could prove to be tentative. However, once the first goal has been netted, we expect a free-flowing game, one which should benefit Brentford.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 49.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Swansea City had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Swansea City win it was 0-1 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.
