Athletico set out to record a fifth straight home win, while Avai have struggled away from home in 2022. We fancy the hosts to get the job done, albeit by only a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 56.93%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Avai had a probability of 17.31%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.43%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for an Avai win it was 0-1 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Athletico Paranaense in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletico Paranaense.

Result
Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Avai
56.93% ( -0.02)	25.76% ( 0.05)	17.31% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 39.89% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.85% (

-0.18)

61.15% (

0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.89% (

-0.14)

81.1% (

0.14)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.35% (

-0.08)

21.65% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.22% (

-0.13)

54.78% (

0.13)

Avai Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.92% (

-0.15)

49.08% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.99% (

-0.11)

84.01% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Athletico Paranaense 56.92%

Avai 17.31%

Draw 25.75%

Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Avai
1-0 @ 16.25% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 12.43% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.35% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.76% Total : 56.92%	1-1 @ 11.57% 0-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.41% Total : 25.75%	0-1 @ 7.56% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.96% Total : 17.31%