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Braga
Europa League | Group Stage
Dec 9, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estadio Municipal
Red Star Belgrade

Braga
1 - 1
Red Star

Galeno (52' pen.)
Leite (36')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Katai (70' pen.)
Katai (45+2'), Dragovic (81'), Degenek (90+5')

Preview: Braga vs. Red Star Belgrade - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Braga and Red Star Belgrade, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The top two in Group F will meet when Braga host Red Star Belgrade in the final matchday of the Europa League group stage.

Both teams will be targeting victory, with the two sides fully aware that a draw may not be enough to guarantee qualification to the knockout stages.


Match preview

Braga's Ricardo Horta celebrates scoring their second goal on September 30, 2021© Reuters

Braga sit in second place, one point ahead of FC Midtjylland, but only a victory will prevent the hosts from having to rely on a favour from Ludogorets - although they are at the very least guaranteed a place in the Europa Conference League.

The Portuguese side were minutes away from claiming a point in their most recent Europa League fixture with Midtjylland before Evander scored from the spot in stoppage time to condemn Braga to a 3-2 defeat.

They have responded to that loss in a positive manner, winning consecutive league games against Vizela and Estoril.

Carlos Carvahal's side have capitalised on home advantage in the Europa League this season, picking up victories in both of their games at the Estadio Municipal de Braga.

Thursday's hosts are comfortably the top scorers in Group F and they will aim to add to their 11-goal tally in the final matchday as they look to clinch a crucial victory.

Red Star Belgrade's Guelor Kanga celebrates scoring their first goal on September 30, 2021© Reuters

Red Star Belgrade head to Portugal in pole position after collecting ten points from their five group games, but qualification for the knockout stages is anything but secure.

Like their opponents, a place in the Europa Conference League is guaranteed, but Thursday's visitors will want to remain in the Europa League and are fully aware that a win would seal a place in the knockout stages.

The Serbian side collected their third victory of the group stage on matchday five with a Mirko Ivanic strike proving enough to secure a 1-0 victory over Ludogorets.

Their first win of the group phase came in the reverse fixture against Braga, and they will be hoping to replicate that 2-1 victory on Thursday.

Although they face a tough away trip, Dejan Stankovic's side will be confident of gaining all three points after winning their last seven games in all competitions.

Braga Europa League form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Braga form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Red Star Belgrade Europa League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W

Red Star Belgrade form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Braga coach Carlos Carvalhal in February 2021© Reuters

Braga will head into Thursday's encounter without the services of Al Musrati, David Carmo and Vitor Tormena, who are all unavailable due to injury issues.

Nuno Sequeira is also missing with a knee injury keeping the defender out of the squad.

After missing Braga's last two games, Galeno is a doubt for Thursday's fixture.

Red Star Belgrade have no injury absentees to contend with, giving Stankovic a fresh squad to choose from.

Milan Pankov is likely to be given the nod up front, and he will be looking to score in the Europa League group stage for the first time this season.

The visitors will also be looking to Aleksandar Katai to supply a goal threat as he looks to add to the 16 goals that he has scored in all competitions this term.

Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; P. Oliveira, Silva, Leita; Couto, Mineiro, A. Horta, Moura; Medeiros, R. Horta, V. Oliveira

Red Star Belgrade possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Gajic, Erakovic, Dragovic, Pankov; Srnic, Petkovic, Katai; Kanga, Ivanic, Pavkov


SM words green background

We say: Braga 3-2 Red Star Belgrade

With only a point separating the two sides in the group, Thursday's contest will be a close encounter, but after winning their two home group games, we think that Braga will utilise home advantage to claim all three points.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 57.73%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 19.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for a Red Star Belgrade win it was 0-1 (6.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Braga vs Red Star

Braga
69.9%
Draw
15.0%
Red Star Belgrade
15.0%
113
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