Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Round of 16

Jan 30, 2024 at 11.30am UK

Al Janoub Stadium

Uzbekistan
2 - 1
Thailand

Turgunboev (37'), Fayzullayev (65')
Khusanov (87')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sarachart (58')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Asian Cup clash between Uzbekistan and Thailand, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uzbekistan

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Australia 1-1 Uzbekistan
Tuesday, January 23 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Australia	3	3	7
2	Uzbekistan	3	3	5
3	Syria	3	0	4
4	India	3	-6	0

Thailand

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 0-0 Thailand
Thursday, January 25 at 3pm in Asian Cup

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Saudi Arabia	3	3	7
2	Thailand	3	2	5
3	Oman	3	-1	2
4	Kyrgyzstan	3	-4	1

We said: Uzbekistan 1-0 Thailand (extra time)

Given how sharp they were defensively in the group stage, we believe Thailand will allow Uzbekistan to be the aggressors in this match, and while the War Elephants have been well-organised and shown they can handle the pressure, we expect the depth of the White Wolves to eventually break through. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 56.62%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Thailand had a probability of 20.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%), while for a Thailand win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uzbekistan would win this match.

Result
Uzbekistan	Draw	Thailand
56.62% ( -0.01)	23.12% ( 0.13)	20.25% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 51.74% (

-0.6)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.1% (

-0.71)

47.9% (

0.71)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.92% (

-0.65)

70.08% (

0.66)

Uzbekistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.3% (

-0.25)

16.7% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.41% (

-0.46)

46.59% (

0.46)

Thailand Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.12% (

-0.53)

37.88% (

0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.34% (

-0.52)

74.66% (

0.52)

Score Analysis

Uzbekistan 56.62%

Thailand 20.25%

Draw 23.12%

Uzbekistan	Draw	Thailand
1-0 @ 11.32% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 10.13% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.07% Total : 56.62%	1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.12%	0-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.98% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.56% Total : 20.25%