Thailand can reach the Asian Cup quarter-finals for the first time with a victory over Uzbekistan on Tuesday at Al Janoub Stadium Park.
A 1-1 draw versus Australia was enough for the White Wolves to finish second in Group B, while the War Elephants played to a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia, finishing second behind them in Group F.
Match preview
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Uzbekistan qualified for the knockout stage of this tournament for a sixth successive occasion, going unbeaten in the opening phase for the first time since 2011.
Srecko Katanec saw his side concede just once in their opening three games, the fewest for them in the group portion of this tournament since 2004 (0).
Making it beyond the Asian Cup group stage has been no problem for this team, but single elimination games have been a different story, with Uzbekistan losing their opening knockout fixtures in either extra time or a shootout in 2011 and 2015 respectively, failing to score in both of those encounters.
Over the past four months, they have been much tidier defensively, conceding a goal or fewer in eight of their previous nine competitive fixtures.
The Turanians are currently on a 10-match unbeaten run in all competitions, scoring multiple goals in seven of those encounters.
On their current run, this group have proven to be remarkably resilient, coming back from a losing position to win or draw five times.
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We saw some dazzling defensive performances from Thailand in the opening round, as they went unbeaten in the group stage for the first time in this tournament.
Iran were the only other team besides Thailand that did not concede a goal in the opening round, as the War Elephants finished with more points this time around (five) than they had in any previous Asian Cup group stage.
Masatada Ishii has seen his team improve tremendously from what we saw in the lead-up to this tournament, winning just one of their final four competitive fixtures before the start of the Asian Cup and conceding 17 goals over that stretch.
Four years ago, they made the knockout stage of this competition for the first time and were fewer than 25 minutes away from advancing, with China scoring twice in four minutes and winning 2-1.
While that match did not go their way, Thailand have won five of their last six opening knockout fixtures, with those five triumphs occurring at the ASEAN Football Federation Championship.
The War Elephants have lost their last two matches versus Uzbekistan, failing to score in either of those outings, with their last victory against them coming at the 2007 King's Cup (3-2).
Team News
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Igor Sergeyev, who plays his club football in Thailand with BG Pathum United, limped off the field for Uzbekistan in their encounter versus Australia with an injury, having been introduced as a second-half substitute in place of Abbosbek Fayzullaev.
On matchday three, Katenec made three changes to his starting 11 as Zafarmurod Abdurakhmatov, Abdulla Abdullaev and Khojimat Erkinov replaced Abdukodir Khusanov, Sherzod Nasrullaev and Jaloliddin Masharipov.
Azizbek Turgunboev came on for Erkinov just beyond the hour mark and notched the equaliser against the Socceroos, his third for the national team.
There was an entirely different starting 11 for Thailand versus Saudi Arabia, as only three players who saw the field on matchday two also featured on matchday three, including Peeradon Chamratsamee, Supachai Chaided and Weerathep Pomphan, who all entered the match as substitutes.
Captain Theerathon Bunmathan, who reached 100 caps on matchday two, can surpass Datsakorn Thonglao and Piyapong Pue-on for the fourth-most appearances with the War Elephants.
Saranon Anuin replaced Patiwat Khammai in between the sticks in their final group fixture, stopping seven shots to collect a clean sheet in his first appearance for the national team.
Uzbekistan possible starting lineup:
Yusupov; Sayfiev, Khusanov, Eshmurodov, Nasrullaev; Urunov, Shukurov, Erkinov, Turgunboev; Amonov, Abdikholikov
Thailand possible starting lineup:
Khammai; Mickelson, Dolah, Hemviboon, Bunmathan; Yooyen, Pomphan; Wonggorn, Sarachat, Phala; Chaided
We say: Uzbekistan 1-0 Thailand (extra time)
Given how sharp they were defensively in the group stage, we believe Thailand will allow Uzbekistan to be the aggressors in this match, and while the War Elephants have been well-organised and shown they can handle the pressure, we expect the depth of the White Wolves to eventually break through.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
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