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Asian Cup
Australia national football team
Asian Cup | Quarter-Finals
Feb 2, 2024 at 3.30pm UK
Al Janoub Stadium
South Korea national football team

Australia
1 - 2
South Korea

Goodwin (42')
Souttar (45+1')
O'Neill (105+4')
FT
(aet)
Hee-chan (90+6' pen.), Heung-min (104')
Min-jae (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Asian Cup clash between Australia and South Korea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Australia 4-0 Indonesia
Sunday, January 28 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

South Korea

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-1 South Korea (2-4 pen.)
Tuesday, January 30 at 4pm in Asian Cup

We say: Australia 1-1 South Korea (Australia advances on penalties)

 South Korea have been remarkably resilient throughout the tournament, but we believe their luck will run out against a Socceroos side that have shown discipline, poise and consistency throughout this competition, which is why we are leaning towards them narrowly advancing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 38.95%. A win for South Korea had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest South Korea win was 0-1 (10.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%).

Result
AustraliaDrawSouth Korea
38.95% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 28.37% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 32.68% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Both teams to score 46.35% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.12% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)59.88% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.86% (-0.014999999999997 -0.01)80.14% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.13% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)29.87% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.04% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)65.96% (0.02300000000001 0.02)
South Korea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.09% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)33.91% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.42% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)70.58% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Score Analysis
    Australia 38.94%
    South Korea 32.67%
    Draw 28.36%
AustraliaDrawSouth Korea
1-0 @ 12.23%
2-1 @ 8% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 7.39% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.22% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.98% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 1.74% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 0.97% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 38.94%
1-1 @ 13.23%
0-0 @ 10.12%
2-2 @ 4.32% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 28.36%
0-1 @ 10.95% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.16%
0-2 @ 5.92% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.58%
0-3 @ 2.14% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.56% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 32.67%

How you voted: Winner Match 37 vs Winner Match 42

Winner Match 37
33.7%
Draw
24.2%
Winner Match 42
42.1%
95
Head to Head
Jun 7, 2019 12pm
International Friendlies
South Korea
1-0
Australia
Eui-Jo (76')
Moon-Hwan (71')

Amini (60'), Borello (91')
Nov 17, 2018 8.50am
International Friendlies
Australia
1-1
South Korea
Luongo (90')
Milligan (88'), Boyle (89')
Ui-jo (22')
Chul (38')
rhs 2.0
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