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Guinea-Bissau national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 19, 2024 at 4pm UK
Estadio Nacional 24 de Setembro
Mozambique national football team

Guinea-Bissau
1 - 2
Mozambique

Beto (42')
Rofino Gordo (14'), Augusto Dabo (37')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Langa (9'), Ratifo (52')
Nanani (37'), Ernan (41'), Catamo (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Eswatini 1-1 Guinea-Bissau
Friday, November 15 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mozambique 0-1 Mali
Friday, November 15 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Guinea-Bissau 2-1 Mozambique

Guinea-Bissau will need to be fully up for the clash as only a win would see them make it through to the 2025 AFCON.   The onus is undeniably more on the home side, and we can see them getting the job done in front of their fans, albeit only just. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.79%) and 1-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (11.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mozambique would win this match.

Result
Guinea-BissauDrawMozambique
31.16% (0.61 0.61) 29.45% (0.632 0.63) 39.38% (-1.242 -1.24)
Both teams to score 43.05% (-1.466 -1.47)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.24% (-1.899 -1.9)63.75% (1.897 1.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.99% (-1.379 -1.38)83.01% (1.378 1.38)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.89% (-0.579 -0.58)37.1% (0.577 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.11% (-0.579 -0.58)73.89% (0.57599999999999 0.58)
Mozambique Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.44% (-1.688 -1.69)31.56% (1.686 1.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.04% (-1.994 -1.99)67.95% (1.993 1.99)
Score Analysis
    Guinea-Bissau 31.15%
    Mozambique 39.38%
    Draw 29.43%
Guinea-BissauDrawMozambique
1-0 @ 11.6% (0.62 0.62)
2-1 @ 6.64% (-0.048 -0.05)
2-0 @ 5.76% (0.221 0.22)
3-1 @ 2.19% (-0.051 -0.05)
3-0 @ 1.9% (0.044 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.27% (-0.091 -0.09)
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 31.15%
1-1 @ 13.38% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 11.7% (0.79 0.79)
2-2 @ 3.83% (-0.212 -0.21)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 29.43%
0-1 @ 13.5% (0.32 0.32)
0-2 @ 7.79% (-0.177 -0.18)
1-2 @ 7.72% (-0.301 -0.3)
0-3 @ 2.99% (-0.214 -0.21)
1-3 @ 2.97% (-0.263 -0.26)
2-3 @ 1.47% (-0.155 -0.16)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 39.38%

How you voted: Guinea-Bissau vs Mozambique

Guinea-Bissau
45.0%
Draw
30.0%
Mozambique
25.0%
20
Head to Head
Sep 10, 2024 2pm
Group Stage
Mozambique
2-1
Guinea-Bissau
Guimaraes (5'), Macamo (73')
Guimaraes (38'), Ernan (90')
Balde (24')
Balde (90+5')
Oct 13, 2023 1am
rhs 2.0
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