Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 48.89%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.02%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.