Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 57.57%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 18.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a IFK Mariehamn win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.