Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 35.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.54%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VfL Bochum would win this match.