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Preview: Australian Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs. Iga Swiatek - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Australian Open second-round match between Rebecca Sramkova and Iga Swiatek, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Rebecca Sramkova's reward for finally advancing into the second round of a Grand Slam pits her against one of the pre-Australian Open favourites, Iga Swiatek, in Thursday's second round.  

The Polish star's first-round success means she has avoided tournament-opening losses at 20 consecutive majors since 2020, and the second seed is bidding for a third-round spot in Australia for the sixth straight year by defeating her Slovakian opponent.


Match preview

Rebecca Sramkova reacts at the Billie Jean King Cup on November 20, 2024© Imago

After losing the opening set against Katie Volynets, Sramkova probably dreaded another tournament-opening loss at a leading event; however, the world No. 49 fought back to claim sets two and three to secure a 3-6 6-2 6-2 victory.

After four first-round exits and several instances of not making it through qualifying, the Slovakian player will feature in the second round of a major for the first time, ironically at the venue of her Grand Slam debut in 2017.

While she enters Thursday's meeting against Swiatek as the underdog, the 28-year-old's prospects of an upset increase if she avoids giving away as many opportunities on her serve.

Although she converted seven of the 15 break-point opportunities she created, Sramkova lost serve four times against Volynets, highlighting some looseness on her deliveries.

Despite her seeming struggles Down Under, Swiatek is unlikely to be as slack on her serve, and it will be fascinating to watch how the first-time second-round participant holds her own against the second seed.

Iga Swiatek in action at the Australian Open on January 13, 2025© Imago

Defeating Katerina Siniakova in the opening round in straight sets (6-3 6-4) continued the 23-year-old's run of tournament-opening victories at the leading events, with no player on the women's tour surpassing Swiatek's 20 consecutive first-round Slam triumphs since 2020.

The five-time Grand Slam champion, though, lost serve twice in her first-round success, suggesting some slackness in certain service games against her Czech opponent.

Contrarily, Swiatek was ruthless when she needed to be, converting four of five break opportunities to seal her second-round place, and she aims to keep building momentum by triumphing on Thursday; the second seed is keen to advance to another third round in her bid to silence naysayers who doubt her adeptness at problem-solving Down Under.

While she has won five Majors, including one at the US Open on hard courts, four have been at Roland Garros, with the Polish superstar only making it past the fourth round in Australia once, in 2022, when she advanced to the semi-finals.

A third-round loss to Linda Noskova 12 months ago followed Swiatek's round-four elimination two years back, further highlighting why the jury is out on the 23-year-old Down Under despite winning 22 titles on the women's tour.


Tournament so far

Rebecca Sramkova:

First round: vs. Katie Volynets 3-6 6-2 6-2

Iga Swiatek:

First round: vs. Katerina Siniakova 6-3 6-4


Head To Head

Swiatek and Sramkova's imminent meeting at the Australian Open will be their first on the women's tour.

Although the Slovakian is 0-2 against top-10 opponents — losing to Jelena Ostapenko on the clay courts in Rome last year and losing to Jasmine Paolini at the Billie Jean King Cup final two months ago — the 28-year-old is 3-8 against top-20 players, notably beating Danielle Collins in straight sets at the BJK Finals in November.

While three victories against players in the top 20 during her career signify some competence against favourites, facing Swiatek, despite the Polish star's Australian Open bugbear, is a different proposition.


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We say: Swiatek to win in two sets

Swiatek's only second-round loss Down Under came on her debut in 2019, and the five-time Grand Slam winner should advance to the third round for the sixth straight year to secure a meeting with Emma Raducanu or Amanda Anisimova.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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