Hatayspor could find themselves in a European spot by the end of the weekend, should they take three points off a relegation-threatened Yeni Malatyaspor on Sunday.
In just their second campaign as a Turkish Super Lig club, Hatayspor have consistently overachieved and are looking to go one better than their fifth-placed finish last season, whilst Yeni Malatyaspor are facing a return to the second tier after five years in the top flight.
Match preview
Hatayspor came within four points of qualifying for the UEFA Europa Conference League in their maiden Super Lig season, only missing out by four points behind Sivasspor.
After what was an astonishing campaign for Omer Erdogan's side, the Star of the South have their sights on continental football this year and have started the season in fine form.
Following a stuttering start to the season that saw them pick up one point from a possible six, Hatayspor then went on to win their next four matches in the league, before suffering a slender defeat to the record Turkish champions Fenerbahce.
One of four teams to have scored 14 goals so far, Erdogan's men have excited with their performances this season, whilst maintaining a solid defensive base.
As well as being the division's joint-top scorers, only leaders Fenerbahce have conceded fewer goals than the club from South Turkey and they have shown no signs of letting up.
Having only been beaten by two big-guns in Fenerbahce and Galatasaray, Hatayspor have had success in taking points off the teams around and below them, with their next target to pile the pressure on an under-pressure Yeni Malatyaspor.
By contrast, Yeni Malatyaspor only escaped relegation by five points last season and the Tigers of the East look set to be engrossed in another cutthroat battle to avoid the drop.
Currently languishing in 17th, Irfan Buz's side have won just two of their seven Super Lig matches this season, all whilst losing the rest.
Unlike their opponents on Sunday, Yeni Malatyaspor have struggled with keeping the goals out and have conceded three goals on a trio of occasions.
Shipping five in their opening day defeat against Trabzonspor, only bottom-placed Caykur Rizespor have conceded more goals this season than Yeni Malatyaspor, with Hatayspor eyeing a bagful when the two meet this weekend.
However, Hatayspor are still chasing their maiden Super Lig victory against Yeni Malatyaspor, having lost and drawn their two head-to-heads last year.
The Star of the South have only triumphed twice in their overall meetings with Yeni Malatyaspor, making Sunday's visit to the New Malatya Stadium less of a formality as it may appear to be.
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Team News
Onur Ergun had started the season in strong form for Hatayspor, featuring in each of their first four matches, before injuring himself in their recent victory over Goztepe.
Unlikely to be involved for the visitors this weekend, Ergun will be joined on the sideline by Isaac Sackey, who has suffered with a stop-start time at Hatayspor since joining last summer.
Sackey made a handful of appearances last season and suffered his second injury of 2021-22 against Fenerbahce, forcing him to miss the trip to Yeni Malatyaspor.
Former Manchester United forward Mame Biram Diouf has starred for Hatayspor this season, netting four goals so far, and the Senegalese striker will lead the line for Erdogan's side once more.
Another standout performer for the visitors has been Saba Lobjanidze, who has scored three times and assisted a further three in his maiden season for the Star of the South.
Didier Ndong has featured in every match for Yeni Malatyaspor since arriving on loan from Dijon and the former Sunderland outcast will marshal the hosts' midfield.
With a full squad available to him, Buz will likely turn to Benjamin Tetteh to get his team the goals, as the Ghanian striker is currently on three for the season.
Adem Buyuk has partnered Tetteh upfront and the Yeni Malatyaspor captain will be keen to add to his two goals and two assists this season.
Yeni Malatyaspor possible starting lineup:
Damlu; Sankaya, Wallace, Ciftpinar; Haddadi, Chouiar, Aabid, Ndong, Eskihellac; Tetteh, Buyuk
Hatayspor possible starting lineup:
Munir; Adekugbe, Oksuz, Kurucuk, Corekci; Boudjemaa, Ribeiro; El Kaabi, Traore, Lobzhanidze; Diouf
We say: Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 Hatayspor
Hatayspor have captured the imagination since earning promotion in 2020 and Erdogan's side will continue their pursuit of European football when they take on a struggling Yeni Malatyaspor.
Whilst Yeni Malatyaspor have enjoyed the upper-edge on their opponents over the previous meetings between the two, Hatayspor's quality should shine through, with the Star of the South likely to come out on top.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hatayspor win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Yeni Malatyaspor had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hatayspor win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Yeni Malatyaspor win was 1-0 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hatayspor would win this match.
