South Africa are coming off a successful Africa Cup of Nations campaign and are now looking to reach their first World Cup since they hosted the tournament back in 2010. In addition, they have retained almost the exact same squad that they took to the Ivory Coast earlier this year and look like a more well-drilled unit than most in this group.
It is usually an absorbing encounter when these neighbouring rivals meet and it should be no different here, but we fancy the hosts will be able to edge the result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 64.15%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Zimbabwe had a probability of 13.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.87%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Zimbabwe win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.
0.13) 
-0.42) 
