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Valencia logo
La Liga | Gameweek 30
Jun 21, 2020 at 6.30pm UK
Mestalla
Osauna logo

Valencia
2 - 0
Osasuna

Guedes (12'), Rodrigo (35')
Guedes (27')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Estupinan (65'), Castro (85')

Preview: Valencia vs. Osasuna - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Osasuna, including team news and predicted lineups.

Valencia will be looking to bounce back from Thursday's disappointing defeat to Real Madrid when they welcome Osasuna to the Mestalla on Sunday night.

Los Che have only picked up one point from their two matches since the return of the 2019-20 La Liga campaign, while Osasuna will enter the match off the back of a heavy home loss to Atletico Madrid.


Match preview

Valencia boss Albert Celades pictured on November 5, 2019© Reuters

Valencia returned to action amid the coronavirus pandemic on June 12 and were held to a 1-1 draw by rivals Levante at the Mestalla, before suffering a 3-0 loss away to Real Madrid on Thursday night.

The two disappointing results have seen Los Che lose ground in the top-four race, and they now sit down in eighth spot in the table, six points behind fourth-placed Atletico Madrid on the same number of matches.

Albert Celades's side have enough games to turn things around in the latter stages of the season, but they have only won one of their last seven in Spain's top flight during a disappointing run.

Valencia have the third-best home record in La Liga this term, though, picking up eight wins from their 15 matches and remaining unbeaten in the process.

The former Spanish champions also recorded a 4-1 victory when they last welcomed Osasuna to the Mestalla in May 2017, although they lost 3-1 in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

Atletico Madrid's Joao Felix in action with Osasuna's Pervis Estupinan in December 2019© Reuters

Osasuna, meanwhile, have picked up 35 points from their 29 matches during the 2019-20 campaign, which has left them in 13th spot, 10 points clear of the relegation zone.

Los Rojillos returned to La Liga by winning the Segunda Division last term, and it does appear that the club are safe in Spain's top flight despite some disappointing results.

Osasuna have actually lost six of their last nine matches in all competitions, while they were thumped 5-0 at home by Atletico on Wednesday night.

The newly-promoted club picked up an impressive point in their last away game at Real Sociedad, though, and also beat Athletic Bilbao at San Mames before the lockdown period.

Valencia La Liga form: DLWDDL
Valencia form (all competitions): LWDLDL

Osasuna La Liga form: WLLWDL


Team News

Valencia's Ezequiel Garay pictured in September 2019© Reuters

Valencia will again be without the services of Gabriel Paulista, Cristiano Piccini and Ezequiel Garay through injury, while Lee Kang-in is suspended due to the red card that he picked up at the Bernabeu.

Celades is expected to shuffle his pack from the side that started against Los Blancos, with Kevin Gameiro, Alessandro Florenzi and Goncalo Guedes all pushing to be involved from the start.

However, Ferran Torres and Geoffrey Kondogbia should keep their spots in midfield.

As for Osasuna, Facundo Roncaglia, Robert Ibanez, Enrique Barja and Ezequiel Avila remain on the sidelines and are therefore unavailable for selection at the Mestalla.

Jagoba Arrasate's side did not pick up any fresh injury concerns against Atletico, but there are expected to be changes from the side that started against the capital outfit.

Indeed, Adrian, Pervis Estupinan, Oier and Nacho Vidal should all return to the starting XI, while Marc Cardona is also likely to earn a recall in the final third of the field.

Valencia possible starting lineup:
Cillessen; Florenzi, Mangala, Diakhaby, Gaya; Guedes, Parejo, Kondogbia, Torres; Gameiro, Rodrigo

Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Ruben; Vidal, U Garcia, Navas, D Garcia, Estupinan; Brasanac, Oier, Perez; Adrian, Cardona


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Valencia 2-1 Osasuna

Valencia are in desperate need of a positive result to boost their top-four hopes, and we fancy Celades's side to triumph on Sunday despite Osasuna showing some strong form on their travels.



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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atletico MadridAtletico18125133122141
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3Real Madrid17114237162137
4Athletic Bilbao19106329171236
5Mallorca199371921-230
6Villarreal177642928127
7Real Sociedad187471613325
8GironaGirona187472625125
9Osasuna186752327-425
10Celta Vigo187382728-124
11Real BetisBetis176652021-124
12Sevilla176471823-522
13Rayo Vallecano175661920-121
14Las PalmasLas Palmas175482227-519
15Leganes174671523-818
16AlavesAlaves184592130-917
17Getafe183781115-416
18Espanyol1743101629-1315
19Valencia172691626-1012
20Real ValladolidValladolid1833121237-2512


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