Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for a Mariupol win it was 2-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zorya Luhansk would win this match.