Sport Recife are seeking their first victory since the beginning of August when they host Internacional on Monday from Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Leao are winless in their last five matches in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, while Colorado have moved up to 12th on the back of a five-game unbeaten run.
Match preview
© Reuters
At the beginning of a new month, we saw much of the same from Recife that we have seen all season long, a lack of offence and discipline as they drew 0-0 with Athletico Parnaense.
Those two flaws have become like a broken record for this team throughout their first season back in the Brazilian top flight, as they have only scored eight goals in this domestic campaign and have also suffered five expulsions in all competitions, including two in their last two league fixtures.
While the style of play implemented by new manager Gustavo Florentin of clogging up the middle of the pitch can tend to put fans to sleep, it has effectively limited the damage opposing teams can cause his side, as Sport have conceded three shots or fewer in each of their previous two games, helping them to maintain two successive clean sheets.
Their 4-2-3-1 formation, along with their approach to the game, may not win any style points from fans or journalists, but it has kept them in contention in just about every fixture so far, as all but one of their games have been decided by one goal or fewer.
The last time they faced Internacional was in their opening match where they showed perhaps their most potent attacking display to date and a lot of resilience as well, coming back from two goals down to draw 2-2, the most they have scored in a single game all year.
They have not won at home since June 17, only scoring one goal at Estadio Adelmar in their last six games played there.
© Reuters
After being a point away from capturing their first domestic league title since 1979 last season, Internacional have taken a big step back through the first half of their 2021 campaign.
They are currently sitting in 12th with 23 points, and they have many teams to catch but not as much ground to make up to get back into contention, with only five points currently separating them from Corinthians, who are sixth.
For much of the season, they have shown to be a very composed and well-organised side away from home, losing two road matches and collecting four clean sheets.
In the first half of 2021, they have played very tentatively against the teams in the relegation zone, winning only one of their three games against the bottom three sides at the moment.
Since falling in a penalty shootout in their Round of 16 tie with Olimpia at the Copa Libertadores, they have had their share of good and bad performances, scoring four goals in back-to-back games last month but coming out with a lot less aggression in their previous fixture versus Athletico Goianiense, where they had only seven shots total throughout the 90 minutes and were shut out for the first time since July 31.
Even though they would have wanted to remain in contention for the Copa do Brasil, and the Libertadores, the silver lining for manager Diego Aguirre is that he does not have to rack his brain trying to decide who to play and who to sit, plus his team will get a lot more rest in between games than they did in June and July.
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
With so many low scoring games, it should come as no surprise to see Mailson leading the league in clean sheets with nine so far as the back four of Sander, Sabino, Pedro Henrique and Hayner have done a terrific job of making life relatively easy for the first choice Recife keeper.
Hernanes will not be available after collecting two yellow cards in their last fixture, while the last goal scored by Recife came way back on August 1 from Mikael, his first of the season, which has him just one behind Andre for the team lead.
Last Sunday Marcao, Paulinho, Santiago Trellez and Andre replaced Cristiano, Thiago Neves, Gustavo and Mikael in the starting 11.
Edenilson is putting together an excellent campaign for Internacional, currently tied with Bruno Henrique for the league lead in goals with eight while also adding five assists.
Yuri Alberto has taken some of the pressure off the vice-captain offensively with six goals himself, while Rodrigo Lindoso scored his only goal of the season the last time these sides met in May.
Moises, Victor Cuesta and Bruno Mendez have been regulars at the back, with Heitor replacing Gabriel Mercado at fullback in their previous match and the American Johnny started in midfield instead of Lindoso.
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Sander, Sabino, Pedro Henrique, Hayner; Marcao; Welison; Chico, Felipe, Trellez; Andre
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Moises, Cuesta, Mendez, Mercado; Dourado, Johnny; Patrick, Mauricio, Edenilson; Alberto
We say: Sport Recife 0-1 Internacional
We have yet to see much improvement from Recife since changing coaches, and the bottom line is that this side have rarely looked like they will score and unless they can find a solution to that soon, it is hard to imagine them winning a lot of games.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 47.04%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 23.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.07%) and 1-2 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 1-0 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Internacional in this match.
