Two big Brazilian clubs struggling at the wrong end of the Brasileiro table lock horns on Sunday when Sao Paulo welcome Gremio to the Estadio do Morumbi.
The hosts have claimed just one league victory on home soil so far this campaign, while the visitors have lost five of their six games on the road.
Match preview
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Sao Paulo head into this weekend's game after claiming a 1-1 draw against Brazilian rivals Palmeiras in the first leg of their Copa Libertadores quarter-final clash on Wednesday.
The Tricolor Paulista broke the deadlock nine minutes after the break through Luan, but they were unable to hold onto their lead as Patrick de Paula equalised in the 74th minute.
Hernan Crespo, who will be pleased that his side remain in the tie against the current holders, now turns his attention back to the Brasileiro, where Sao Paulo have so far failed to live up to the heights expected.
Finishing the last three seasons in fifth, sixth and fourth respectively, Crespo's men currently sit in 16th place this term, just one point and one place above the relegation zone, after winning only three of their opening 15 league games.
They were, however, able to claim all three points in their most recent league match, winning 2-1 away at Atletico Paranaense last weekend.
Sao Paulo have struggled in recent seasons against Gremio, having won only one of their last 12 encounters against them, a 2-1 away win in February.
However, as Crespo's men are currently unbeaten in each of their last five matches across all competitions, he will be hoping that his side can build on this momentum and secure another victory on Sunday, against a side in the relegation zone.
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Gremio have also failed to fulfil their domestic expectations so far this season, though their form is now slowly beginning to improve since the appointment of experienced head coach Luis Felipe Scolari.
Despite being knocked out of the Copa Sudamericana in the last 16, Gremio have accumulated eight points from their last five matches since Scolari took charge at the start of July.
The Immortal Tricolor currently sit 19th in the table with 10 points, five points adrift of Sunday's opponents Sao Paulo, who are placed just outside the bottom four.
Gremio's most recent league result was a 2-1 victory at home to basement club Chapecoense, with first-half strikes from Alisson and Miguel Borja sealing their second Brasileiro win this campaign.
Scolari's men still have a long way to go if they are to escape from the relegation zone, but securing all three points this weekend against a Sao Paulo side, who they have lost to just once in the last six years, should provide them with a much-needed boost going forward.
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Team News
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Sao Paulo centre-back Walce remains out with a cruciate ligament rupture, while Luciano has not played since suffering a muscle injury in June.
Attacking midfielder Martin Benitez is also unavailable after being shown a straight red card against Paranaense as an unused substitute, following an altercation on the touchline.
With one eye on their Copa Libertadores second leg, Crespo may decide to make changes to his starting lineup, which could see the likes of Dani Alves, Luan and Emiliano Rigoni replaced by Igor Vinicius, Igor Gomes and Joao Rojas.
As for Gremio, they will have Diego Souza (thigh), Ferreira (knee), Maicon (calf) and full-back Rafinha (muscle) all sidelined due to injury, while centre-back Walter Kannemann is also a doubt, so Paulo Miranda and Pedro Geromel could start in defence.
In addition, goalkeeper Brenno Costa is set for a short break away from club action, after winning a gold medal with Brazil at the 2020 Olympics, while midfielder Matheus Henrique has left the club, completing his transfer to Italian outfit Sassuolo.
Scolari is unlikely to make too many changes to his first XI, which could see Douglas Costa, Jean Pyerre and Borja all keep their places in attack.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Vinicius, Miranda, Leo, Welington; Nestor, Liziero; Rojas, Sara, Gomes; Pablo
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Vanderson, Geromel, Tressoldi, Cortez; Mendes, Santos; Costa, Pyerre, Alisson; Borja
We say: Sao Paulo 2-2 Gremio
Sao Paulo and Gremio have had difficult domestic campaigns so far and are placed well below where their fans expect them to be.
The form of both clubs has improved slightly in recent weeks, but with little to separate them, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards at the Estadio do Morumbi.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 25.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.25%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
