Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 42.51%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 31.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
