Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
