Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.