For the first time since 2020, the Columbus Crew have an opportunity to start a Major League Soccer campaign unbeaten in their opening four matches if they can avoid defeat on Sunday at Red Bull Arena versus the New York Red Bulls.
The Crew came from behind to beat Toronto 2-1 last Saturday, while the Red Bulls suffered their first defeat of the new season, dropping a 1-0 decision to Minnesota United.
Match preview
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We saw them play their game effectively in their home opener, pressing the Loons high up the field and creating the bulk of the scoring opportunities, but unfortunately for New York they ran into a hot goalkeeper in Dayne St. Clair, who was at the top of his game.
The Red Bulls fired eight shots on target, failing to solve the young Canadian keeper as Gerhard Struber's men created plenty of turnovers in good scoring areas of the field.
Their Austrian manager has talked about the importance of his attacking players to be more cold-blooded in front of goal, and that is something we have seen from them in the early stages of the year, scoring seven times in their opening two league fixtures.
So far, after three matches, one of the consistent themes within this group is how aggressive they have been with the high press, continuing to search for goals, and seemingly not as worried about protecting a lead.
While the determination and fight was there from the opening whistle to the end of the game last week, this team continue to struggle when conceding first, without a win in that scenario since September 2020, when they scored four unanswered goals after Montreal took the lead in the fourth minute.
It seems as though the body language of this team is a lot more upbeat than we saw early on in 2021, and Struber has said that he is noticing more unity and fight amongst his players so far this year.
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Following a tough 2021 campaign, the Crew have shown a ton of resilience and character this season, erasing a half-time deficit to collect all three points in the cold Ohio climate last Saturday.
Caleb Porter could not hide how proud he was of his players following their victory, as they dug deep, fighting their way back into that match with TFC, just a week after a late collapse on the road to the San Jose Earthquakes (3-3).
Winning away from home has not come easy for Porter and his squad, who were only able to do that three times last season, although if you go back to the end of the 2021 regular season, the Crew are unbeaten in three straight road encounters.
This year, some quick in-game adjustments and tactical shifts have been quite effective for them, with Columbus claiming four points thus far from losing positions.
It helps to have several veterans healthy and capable of changing their play quickly, while also figuring out the opposition's rhythm, something which they did incredibly well against their two Canadian opponents this year (the Vancouver Whitecaps and Toronto FC).
They have reacted well when trailing and are a threat to score all over the field, both inside and especially outside the 18-yard-box.
Balance is an important trait to have if you want to be successful in MLS, and we have seen plenty of that from Columbus, with eight different players notching either a goal or an assist thus far as they lead the Eastern Conference in goals with nine.
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Team News
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Patryk Klimala had his first-half penalty last week saved, which could have changed the complexion of that match.
He and teammate Frankie Amaya will hope to set up a few more goals in this one, as they are both tied with Diego Fagundez and Raheem Edwards in league assists so far this year with three.
Andres Reyes and Wikelman Carmona are out with foot injuries, Cameron Harper has an issue with his quad and Cristian Casseres is questionable with a hip flexor.
Luquinhas made his first appearance for the Red Bulls last weekend, replacing Dylan Nealis with fewer than 10 minutes remaining.
The Red Bulls are still working on the visa situation for Ashley Fletcher, meaning that the Englishman, on loan from Watford, is unlikely to make his debut this weekend.
Sources across the league suggest that the Crew are open to trading striker Gyasi Zardes, who is in the final year of his contract with the club, having scored one goal so far this season, putting him into a tie for third on the team alongside Luis Diaz and Miguel Berry.
Kevin Molino has a right knee problem, Jake Morris is nursing an issue with his right foot, the left thigh of Josh Williams is unlikely to be healed by Sunday, Isaiah Parente has an illness and Sean Zawadzski could miss some more time with a concussion.
Lucas Zelarayan is off to a fantastic start in the 2022 campaign, leading the league in goals with four, and he is even with Luciano Acosta when it comes to key passes (12), while Derrick Etienne has chipped in with two strikes himself and is tied for the team lead in assists alongside the Armenian midfielder and Steven Moreira, all of whom have set up two goals this year.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Edwards, S. Nealis, D. Nealis, Long; Amaya, Yearwood, Tolkin; Morgan, Luquinhas; Klimala
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Moreira, Mensah, Degenek, Santos; Artur, Nagbe; Diaz, Zelarayan, Etienne; Berry
We say: New York Red Bulls 1-1 Columbus Crew
Both teams thrive in transition and can adjust on the fly to what they are seeing from their opponents as a game transpires.
You can throw the Columbus road record of late out the window as this is a different team from the one we saw in 2021, so look for this to be a hard-fought match, with two teams who possess plenty of depth all over the pitch.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
