Athletic Bilbao will be looking to return to winning ways in La Liga when they head to Estadio El Sadar on Monday evening to take on Osasuna.
The visitors, who occupy 11th position in the table, suffered a 2-1 defeat to Real Madrid before the winter break, while 13th-placed Osasuna lost 1-0 to Getafe in their last game.
Match preview
© Reuters
Osasuna have won five, drawn seven and lost six of their 18 La Liga matches during the 2021-22 campaign to collect 22 points, which has left them in 13th position in the table.
Los Rojillos have finished 10th and 11th in Spain's top flight since returning to this level of football in 2019, and it would not be a surprise to see them in a similar position come the end of this campaign.
Osasuna recorded two Copa del Rey victories in December, overcoming San Agustin and Deportivo La Coruna, but they have not triumphed in the league since the middle of October; three of their last four La Liga fixtures have finished level, including a 2-2 draw with Barcelona on December 12.
Jagoba Arrasate's side now have back-to-back home league fixtures against Athletic and Cadiz before visiting Celta Vigo and Granada in their final two matches before the end of the month.
Osasuna have actually been victorious in two of their last three league games against Athletic, including a 1-0 win in the corresponding match during the 2020-21 campaign.
© Reuters
Athletic, meanwhile, suffered a 2-1 home defeat to Real Madrid before the winter break, with an early double from Karim Benzema proving enough for Carlo Ancelotti's side to collect all three points.
The Basque outfit have only won one of their last 10 league matches, which came at home to Real Betis on December 19, and the disappointing run of form has seen them drop into 11th position in the table.
Athletic have only lost five of their 19 league matches this season, which is the same as champions Atletico Madrid and third-placed Real Betis, but they have recorded just five victories, which has prevented them from moving higher up the division at this stage.
The Lions finished 10th in La Liga last season, but they were fourth, seventh, fifth and seventh in four straight seasons between 2013 and 2017, and Marcelino's side are certainly capable of putting together a run of positive results in the coming weeks to rise up the table.
Athletic have not beaten Osasuna in the league since November 2019, though, and they are also without a victory away from home in Spain's top flight since the end of August.
- L
- L
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Osasuna will again be missing Jesus Areso through injury, while Chimy Avila, Darko Brasanac, Ivan Marquez, Inigo Perez and Manu Sanchez are absent due to positive COVID-19 tests.
There will be changes from the side that started against Getafe before the winter break, with Cote and Roberto Torres among those in line to start, but Kike should continue in the final third of the field.
The home team are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 formation, with Ruben Garcia featuring on the right, while Lucas Torro and Jon Moncayola should start in the middle of the park.
As for Athletic, Asier Villalibre is still out through injury, while Dani Vivian, Yuri Berchiche and Peru Nolaskoain are also expected to miss the match due to fitness problems.
Unai Nunez, Inigo Lekue, Oier Zarraga and Raul Garcia have tested positive for coronavirus, meanwhile, so Oihan Sancet is likely to come into the side in the final third.
Oscar de Marcos is also in line to start at right-back, while an attacking side should include Nico Williams, Iker Muniain and Inaki Williams, with Dani Garcia featuring in the middle of the park.
Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Vidal, D Garcia, U Garcia, Cote; Torres, Moncayola, Torro, R Garcia; Kike, Budimir
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; De Marcos, Alvarez, Martinez, Balenziaga; N Williams, Vencedor, D Garcia, Muniain; I Williams, Sancet
We say: Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
Athletic have been the draw specialists in La Liga this season, sharing the points on nine occasions, and we are predicting another draw on Monday night. Osasuna have also gone a long time without picking up all three points in the league, so it would not be a surprise to see a stalemate in this contest.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 35.98%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.13%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 1-0 (12.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
