Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 70.81%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for DC United had a probability of 11.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.27%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (3.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.