Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 59.81%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 20.92% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.22%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (5.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles Galaxy would win this match.
Result | ||
Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
59.81% ( -0.23) | 19.27% ( 0.11) | 20.92% ( 0.12) |
Both teams to score 66.62% ( -0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.05% ( -0.38) | 28.94% ( 0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.09% ( -0.47) | 49.91% ( 0.47) |
Los Angeles Galaxy Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.36% ( -0.17) | 9.63% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.82% ( -0.39) | 32.18% ( 0.39) |
Sporting Kansas City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.73% ( -0.13) | 26.27% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.61% ( -0.18) | 61.39% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 5.4% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.02) Other @ 4% Total : 59.81% | 1-1 @ 7.92% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.48% Total : 19.27% | 1-2 @ 5.29% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 20.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |