Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.