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League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 36
Mar 2, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Reading logo

Carlisle
1 - 3
Reading

Mellish (71')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Smith (17'), Knibbs (36', 57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One

Reading

All competitions
Last Game: Reading 2-3 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Reading

 Although Carlisle claimed all three points in Tuesday's away clash with Burton, they have lost each of their last four home matches, and after falling to a 5-1 defeat to Reading in the reverse fixture, we think that the Cumbrians will come up short in Saturday's home outing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawReading
31.67% (0.067 0.07) 25.52% (0.026999999999997 0.03) 42.8% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 54.75% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.97% (-0.089000000000006 -0.09)49.03% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.89% (-0.080000000000002 -0.08)71.11% (0.081999999999994 0.08)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.93% (0.0010000000000048 0)29.07%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.02% (0.0020000000000024 0)64.98%
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.19% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)22.81% (0.086000000000002 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.48% (-0.124 -0.12)56.51% (0.125 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 31.67%
    Reading 42.8%
    Draw 25.52%
Carlisle UnitedDrawReading
1-0 @ 8.19% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.48% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.06% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.28% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-0 @ 2.08% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 31.67%
1-1 @ 12.1% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.63% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0039999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.52%
0-1 @ 9.8% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.95% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.41% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.57% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.72% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.63% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.32% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.01% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 42.8%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Reading

Carlisle United
0.0%
Draw
30.0%
Reading
70.0%
10
Head to Head
Nov 28, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 20
Reading
5-1
Carlisle
Lavelle (26' og.), Knibbs (32', 39'), Wing (78'), Azeez (83')
Dorsett (53')
Plange (29')
Armer (33')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham19143235161945
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
3Wrexham21126331141742
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Lincoln CityLincoln218762825331
7Reading209473030031
8Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
9Barnsley218672930-130
10Mansfield TownMansfield198472322128
11Charlton AthleticCharlton207672319427
12Blackpool207672931-227
13Exeter CityExeter208391922-327
14Stevenage197571517-226
15Leyton Orient207492320325
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
17Wigan AthleticWigan206681918124
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham196581921-223
19Bristol Rovers2064101829-1122
20Northampton TownNorthampton2156102134-1321
21Crawley TownCrawley2054112033-1319
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion2026121732-1512
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2033142141-2012
> League One Full Table


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