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FA Cup
Newport County
FA Cup | Second Round
Nov 27, 2022 at 3.15pm UK
Rodney Parade
Derby logo

Newport
1 - 2
Derby

Farquharson (41')
Drysdale (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sibley (54'), McGoldrick (88')
Smith (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Newport County and TBC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: MK Dons 3-1 Newport
Tuesday, November 22 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Derby County

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Portsmouth 0-0 Derby
Friday, November 18 at 8pm in League One

We said: Newport County 2-1 Derby County

 Newport may not have been on the finest form this season, signalled by the change in management and their precarity at the bottom end of League Two. Derby have the better players on paper, with many of their first-teamers having been Championship players up to very recently. However, the Exiles' history in the FA Cup could well drive the team to victory at Rodney Parade. With the help of the experienced Dolan, Willmott and Day in particular, an upset is definitely on the cards this Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
Newport CountyDrawDerby County
39.74% (0.921 0.92) 27.25% (0.45 0.45) 33.01% (-1.372 -1.37)
Both teams to score 49.71% (-1.68 -1.68)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.3% (-2.004 -2)55.7% (2.004 2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.15% (-1.663 -1.66)76.84% (1.661 1.66)
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.59% (-0.426 -0.43)27.4% (0.425 0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.12% (-0.556 -0.56)62.88% (0.555 0.56)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.48% (-1.902 -1.9)31.52% (1.9 1.9)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.08% (-2.256 -2.26)67.91% (2.255 2.26)
Score Analysis
    Newport County 39.73%
    Derby County 33.01%
    Draw 27.25%
Newport CountyDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.18% (0.72 0.72)
2-1 @ 8.36% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.24% (0.379 0.38)
3-1 @ 3.61% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.12% (0.128 0.13)
3-2 @ 2.08% (-0.136 -0.14)
4-1 @ 1.17% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.01% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 39.73%
1-1 @ 12.91% (0.18 0.18)
0-0 @ 8.64% (0.647 0.65)
2-2 @ 4.82% (-0.254 -0.25)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 27.25%
0-1 @ 9.97% (0.25 0.25)
1-2 @ 7.45% (-0.298 -0.3)
0-2 @ 5.76% (-0.158 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.87% (-0.275 -0.28)
0-3 @ 2.22% (-0.184 -0.18)
2-3 @ 1.86% (-0.203 -0.2)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 33.01%

How you voted: Newport vs TBC

Newport County
42.9%
Draw
3.6%
TBC
53.6%
28
rhs 2.0
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> Premier League Full Table


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