We said: Sweden 1-1 Belgium
Belgium have won their last three games against Sweden, with the home side not beating their opponents here since 1961. This has all of the makings of a very interesting game, but we are struggling to separate the two teams, ultimately settling on a low-scoring draw.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 31.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Sweden win was 1-0 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
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