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Europa Conference League header WWW

UEFA Conference League
Villarreal logo
Conference League | Playoffs | 1st Leg
Aug 18, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Villarreal
4 - 2
Hajduk Split

Luis Morales (14', 36'), Livaja (19' og.), Moreno (45+1')
Baena (32'), Mandi (82')
FT(HT: 4-1)
Biuk (2'), Fossati (85' pen.)
Livaja (13'), Sahiti (35'), Awaziem (72'), Lovrencsics (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Villarreal and Hajduk Split, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

Last Six:
Last Game: Real Valladolid 0-3 Villarreal
Saturday, August 13 at 6pm in La Liga

Hajduk Split

Last Six:
    Last Game: Guimaraes 1-0 Hajduk Split
    Wednesday, August 10 at 5pm in Europa Conference League

    We said: Villarreal 2-0 Hajduk Split

     While we are yet to see whether Villarreal will truly prioritise building a run in Europe's third competition, they should still have more than enough to beat Hajduk Split on home turf. Emery has plenty of quality throughout his squad if he opts to rotate, and their array of attacking talent will likely overpower the Croatian visitors. Read more.

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 59.6%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Hajduk Split had a probability of 15.31%.

    The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.35%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Hajduk Split win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.

    Result
    VillarrealDrawHajduk Split
    59.6% (0.149 0.15) 25.1% (0.059999999999999 0.06) 15.31% (-0.207 -0.21)
    Both teams to score 37.97% (-0.51900000000001 -0.52)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    38.38% (-0.459 -0.46)61.62% (0.46 0.46)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    18.54% (-0.342 -0.34)81.46% (0.343 0.34)
    Villarreal Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    79.23% (-0.128 -0.13)20.77% (0.128 0.13)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    46.59% (-0.202 -0.2)53.41% (0.20099999999999 0.2)
    Hajduk Split Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    47.93% (-0.576 -0.58)52.07% (0.577 0.58)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    13.95% (-0.379 -0.38)86.05% (0.379 0.38)
    Score Analysis
        Villarreal 59.58%
        Hajduk Split 15.31%
        Draw 25.09%
    VillarrealDrawHajduk Split
    1-0 @ 16.99% (0.22 0.22)
    2-0 @ 13.35% (0.12 0.12)
    2-1 @ 8.72% (-0.065 -0.06)
    3-0 @ 7% (0.039 0.04)
    3-1 @ 4.57% (-0.052 -0.05)
    4-0 @ 2.75% (0.004 0)
    4-1 @ 1.79% (-0.028 -0.03)
    3-2 @ 1.49% (-0.043 -0.04)
    Other @ 2.93%
    Total : 59.58%
    		1-1 @ 11.09% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
    0-0 @ 10.81% (0.19 0.19)
    2-2 @ 2.84% (-0.07 -0.07)
    Other @ 0.35%
    Total : 25.09%
    		0-1 @ 7.06% (0.0030000000000001 0)
    1-2 @ 3.62% (-0.074 -0.07)
    0-2 @ 2.3% (-0.039 -0.04)
    Other @ 2.33%
    Total : 15.31%

    How you voted: Villarreal vs Hajduk Split

    Villarreal
    91.2%
    Draw
    2.9%
    Hajduk Split
    5.9%
    68
    rhs 2.0
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