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[monks data]
England national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Wembley Stadium
Denmark national football team

England
0 - 1
Denmark


Maguire (5'), Henderson (85'), Phillips (87')
Maguire (32')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Eriksen (35' pen.)
Christensen (38'), Hojbjerg (45+1')

Preview: England vs. Denmark - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League clash between England and Denmark, including team news and predicted lineups.

England will be looking to build on their victories over Wales and Belgium when they host Denmark in a UEFA Nations League clash at Wembley on Wednesday evening.

The Three Lions moved to the top of the Group A2 standings with their win over Belgium on Sunday, while the Danes thrashed Iceland 3-0 in their most recent match to keep their campaign alive.


Match preview

For the best part of 40 minutes in Sunday's contest at Wembley, it was a case of men against boys as Belgium proved exactly why they are the top-ranked nation in the world.

However, a Marcus Rashford penalty and Mason Mount's deflected shot earned Gareth Southgate's men a 2-1 comeback win, completely changing the complexion of Group A2 in the process.

England are now one point better off than Belgium and three in front of Denmark at the midway stage, with a so-far pointless Iceland propping up the table.

Southgate claimed that the victory over Belgium, who had previously lost just three of their 46 matches under Roberto Martinez, will give his side plenty of confidence.

After showing once again that they are capable of beating a fellow heavyweight nation, the Three Lions can now tighten their grip on top spot with victory at Wembley on Wednesday.

England have won 20 of their last 21 competitive matches on home soil, though they found life very tough against Denmark when the sides met in Copenhagen a month ago.

Conor Coady celebrates scoring for England against Wales in an international friendly on October 8, 2020© Reuters

Harry Kane came close to winning the dreary contest but neither side really did enough to warrant a victory, leading to plenty of criticism of Southgate's system at the time.

Having won back-to-back games since then, however, with the Belgium win coming three days after a comprehensive 3-0 friendly victory over Wales, Southgate has plenty of ammunition to hit back.

His side are now unbeaten in seven matches and have conceded in just one of those games - Romelu Lukaku's penalty on Sunday - but opponents Denmark also enter this game in good shape.

After taking a point off England last month, they have since defeated Faroe Islands 4-0 in a friendly and eased to that aforementioned win over Iceland last time out.

Christian Eriksen and Robert Skov were on target in that one after Runar Mar Sigurjonsson put into his own net, giving Kasper Hjulmand his first competitive win as coach.

A point will likely be the target from this trip to the English capital, although if the Danes have aspirations of winning the group then they may well have to go all out to find a victory.

England Nations League form: WDW
England form (all competitions): WWWDWW

Denmark Nations League form: LDW
Denmark form (all competitions): WDLDWW


Team News

England's Harry Kane celebrates scoring their third goal with teammate Jadon Sancho on November 14, 2019© Reuters

Despite risking the wrath of Tottenham Hotspur boss Jose Mourinho, Southgate is set to recall Kane against Denmark as he has recovered from a minor injury issue.

That will almost certainly mean Dominic Calvert-Lewin making way from the starting lineup, while Mount's place in the side is also at risk should Jadon Sancho be welcomed back.

Ben Chilwell and Kieran Trippier pulled out of the squad on Tuesday, so Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Reece James are in line to start in the wing-back positions.

Elsewhere, Jordan Henderson lasted more than an hour against Belgium and, fitness depending, will retain his spot in central midfield here.

As for Denmark, Martin Braithwaite and Eriksen have started both of their matches over the past week but are unlikely to be afforded a rest for this big match.

Mathias Jensen was an unused substitute against Iceland and could provide Hjulmand with some fresh legs in midfield, while Pione Sisto is another who is pushing for inclusion.

England possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Maguire, Coady, Walker; James, Rice, Henderson, Maitland-Niles; Sancho, Kane, Rashford

Denmark possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Wass, Kjaer, Christensen, Skov; Delaney, Hojbjerg; Poulsen, Eriksen, Braithwaite; Dolberg


SM words green background

We say: England 2-0 Denmark

Even accounting for their stalemate in the reverse meeting with Denmark, England have been in impressive form over the past 12 months and are now in control of their own Group A2 destiny.

Southgate's men can tighten their grip on top spot with another Wembley win on Wednesday, and we are backing the hosts to do exactly that.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 48.28%. A win for Denmark had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Denmark win was 0-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.


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Game History

Who will win Wednesday's UEFA Nations League match between England and Denmark?

England
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Draw
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Denmark
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Mason Mount celebrates scoring for England against Belgium in the Nations League on October 11, 2020
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