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Bundesliga | Gameweek 16
Jan 11, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
3 - 2
Holstein Kiel

Remberg (23' og.), Gunter (38'), Grifo (74')
Kubler (58'), Gregoritsch (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Harres (85', 90')
Harres (37'), Gigovic (45+3'), Javorcek (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 5-1 Freiburg
Saturday, December 21 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel

All competitions
Last Game: Holstein Kiel 5-1 Augsburg
Saturday, December 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Holstein Kiel

 While Holstein Kiel managed to claim a big home win ahead of the December break, they have been very poor on the road this season, having conceded two or more goals in every away match and still winless after seven games. Freiburg have not been at their best this term either, but they are one of the best in the division when playing on their home patch, and we feel they should come away from this one with all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.79%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawHolstein Kiel
47.79% (-1.413 -1.41) 23.17% (0.379 0.38) 29.04% (1.032 1.03)
Both teams to score 61.41% (-0.577 -0.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.35% (-1.099 -1.1)39.65% (1.098 1.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38% (-1.154 -1.15)62% (1.152 1.15)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.13% (-0.929 -0.93)16.87% (0.928 0.93)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.1% (-1.68 -1.68)46.9% (1.678 1.68)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.87% (0.131 0.13)26.13% (-0.132 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.8% (0.17599999999999 0.18)61.2% (-0.177 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 47.79%
    Holstein Kiel 29.04%
    Draw 23.16%
FreiburgDrawHolstein Kiel
2-1 @ 9.37% (-0.068999999999999 -0.07)
1-0 @ 7.85% (0.158 0.16)
2-0 @ 6.98% (-0.077 -0.08)
3-1 @ 5.56% (-0.219 -0.22)
3-0 @ 4.14% (-0.179 -0.18)
3-2 @ 3.73% (-0.133 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.47% (-0.179 -0.18)
4-0 @ 1.84% (-0.141 -0.14)
4-2 @ 1.66% (-0.114 -0.11)
Other @ 4.2%
Total : 47.79%
1-1 @ 10.52% (0.25 0.25)
2-2 @ 6.29% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.41% (0.221 0.22)
3-3 @ 1.67% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.16%
1-2 @ 7.07% (0.194 0.19)
0-1 @ 5.92% (0.319 0.32)
0-2 @ 3.97% (0.227 0.23)
1-3 @ 3.16% (0.098 0.1)
2-3 @ 2.81% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 1.78% (0.108 0.11)
1-4 @ 1.06% (0.037 0.04)
2-4 @ 0.94% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 29.04%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Holstein Kiel

Freiburg
82.9%
Draw
17.1%
Holstein Kiel
0.0%
35
Head to Head
Oct 31, 2018 7.45pm
Second Round
Holstein Kiel
2-1
Freiburg
Serra (26'), Kinsombi (79')
Dehm (51')
Petersen (1')
Petersen (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern18143156154145
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen18125144242041
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt18113442241836
4Stuttgart1895436261032
5RB Leipzig189453227531
6Mainz 05Mainz188463123828
7Wolfsburg188374032827
8Freiburg188372534-927
9Werder Bremen187563134-326
10Borussia DortmundDortmund187473231125
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach187382729-224
12Augsburg186482133-1222
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin185581624-820
14St Pauli1852111421-717
15Hoffenheim184592335-1217
16Heidenheim1842122338-1514
17Holstein Kiel1832132646-2011
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1824121740-2310
> Bundesliga Full Table


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