Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 48.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 25.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.