Two sides separated by a single point in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A standings will face each other on Sunday as Fluminense head to Arena da Baixada in Curitiba to play Athletico Paranaense.
On Wednesday, Furacao moved into eighth place, despite drawing Chapecoense 1-1, as they got some help from Corinthians, who defeated Flu 1-0, dropping Tricolor down to ninth.
Match preview
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It appears that Paranaense have lost their focus since advancing to the final of the Copa Sudamericana, winning only one of their four Serie A matches after defeating Penarol 2-0 at the end of September.
They narrowly avoided another defeat this week, conceding just before the hour mark to the last-place side Chape, before equalising in the 89th minute.
In his three matches in charge, Alberto Valentim has seen his team produce a mixture of good and bad performances, as the former Paranaense right-back won his first game at the helm over Goianiense 2-0, before losing to Bahia by the same score and then coming back to win a single point in their last game earlier this week.
In their previous two fixtures, their midfield have made it far too easy for their opponents to break in between the lines, conceding numerous high-quality scoring opportunities.
Despite being shut out in their last home game against Bahia, this team have been pretty sharp in front of goal on home soil, scoring eight times in their previous three matches played at Arena de Baixada in all competitions.
They have an opportunity to capture two trophies in a season for the first time in their history, so it will be interesting to see how they approach this game with the first leg of their semi-final clash against Flamengo in the Copa do Brasil scheduled for next Wednesday.
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Paranaense are not the only side struggling to win points in the league this month, as Flu have yet to find the back of the net in their three matches played in October.
Marcao suffered his second defeat in league play as his side conceded only one shot on target, but it was all Corinthians would need to come away with the victory.
They seem to have gotten a little ahead of themselves in recent weeks after feeling pretty good about their game when they edged Bragantino at the end of September, 2-1.
Defensively this team have conceded no more than three shots on target in their previous two matches, but as has been the case throughout the year, they often lack that creativity to produce a lot of quality chances themselves.
In their first meeting with El Paranaense, Fluminense were caught in transition on several occasions as they squandered an early one-goal lead, falling 4-1.
Like their opponents, this is a complicated side to dissect because Flu are capable of producing results against the likes of Atletico Mineiro and Bragantino but then will struggle against other sides who are near them or below them in the table.
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Team News
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Christian rescued a point for Paranaense on Wednesday with a late goal, his first of the season, thanks to a nice set-up from fellow substitute Khellven, who collected his second assist of the year on that play.
David Terans has five goals and seven assists since joining them from Penarol earlier this season, while his strike partners this week, Renato Kayzer and Nikao, have chipped in with four and three goals, respectively.
Matheus Babi continues to recover from cruciate ligament surgery, while Abner replaced Nicolas in midfield on Wednesday, Leo Cittadini started in place of Erick and Kayzer played as a central striker rather than Guilherme Bissoli, who began as the lone man in attack versus Bahia.
Fred has five goals for Flu versus Paranaense in his career, including the only goal in their previous meeting against them this year, but he only has three in the league so far in 2021, putting him in second on the team, tied with Raul Bobadilla and Lucca.
Luccas Claro could be back in the starting 11 after missing their previous match with a yellow card suspension, which means that David Braz could be the odd man out after he played the full 90 minutes in central defence on Wednesday, alongside Danilo Barcelos, Nino and Samuel Xavier.
Muriel, Ganso, Juan Cazares, Gabriel Teixeira and Hudson could all miss this game for Flu because of injuries.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Pedrinho, Heleno, P. Henrique, Khellven; Christian, Cittadini, Richard; Terans, Bissoli, Nikao
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Barcelos, Claro, Nino, Xavier; Wellington, Andre, Martinelli; L. Henrique, Kennedy, Paulista
We say: Athletico Paranaense 2-0 Fluminense
Lately, this matchup has produced a lot of goals, with nine between both sides in their past two fixtures, five from Paranaense.
These teams are close to each other in the table at the moment, but Athletico have been a lot sharper in the final third, especially since Terans joined the mix, so expect their attacking threats and the home crowd to help them earn a valuable three points.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 44.15%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 27.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.74%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.02%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
