Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istiqlol Dushanbe win with a probability of 49.81%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for AMGK had a probability of 23.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for an AMGK win it was 0-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.