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Aberdeen logo
Conference League | Qualifying Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Aug 26, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Pittodrie Stadium
Qarabag

Aberdeen
1 - 3
Qarabag FK

Ferguson (90+2' pen.)
MacKenzie (32'), Ojo (58'), Ferguson (61'), Brown (64')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Bayramov (8'), Iuri Borges Malinowski (18'), Zoubir (72')
Iuri Borges Malinowski (25'), Ibrahimli (47')

Preview: Aberdeen vs. Qarabag FK - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Aberdeen and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aberdeen head into the second leg of their Europa Conference League playoff tie with Qarabag FK looking to overturn a narrow deficit.

The Scottish side were able to return from Azerbaijan with a 1-0 defeat, giving Stephen Glass's squad a realistic chance of making further progress in the competition.


Match preview

General view of Aberdeen's Pittodrie Stadium from 2008© Reuters

Despite the prospect of a long trip to Azerbaijan last week, Stephen Glass would have had total confidence that his players could return to Scotland still in this tie.

That is exactly what transpired with the Dons limiting their hosts to a 30th-minute goal on a pitch which was condemned by Glass after the full-time whistle.

While the injury to Andrew Considine is a considerable blow, the result itself means that Aberdeen can look to use their home advantage to claim their biggest European victory since 2007.

Going three games without success is not ideal preparation for this encounter, but positives could be taken from Sunday's 1-1 draw at Hearts.

Glass will want to see more from summer arrival Christian Ramirez, who has now gone five matches without finding the back of the net.

Qarabag are no strangers to qualifying for European competition, so having to fight hard to feature in the Europa Conference League group stages will feel like somewhat of a comedown.

Nevertheless, Gurban Gurbanov is motivated to respond to a 2020-21 campaign which promised so much, Qarabag losing the league title on the last day of the season and exiting two cup competitions via penalty shootouts.

To their credit, they have come through their opening seven fixtures without suffering defeat, but Sunday's win over Sabail was the first time that they have scored more than one goal in a game.

Nineteen-year-old Musa Gurbanli netted twice during a 3-0 win, producing a performance which suggested that he is ready to take on more responsibility in the first team.

Aberdeen Europa Conference League form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Aberdeen form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D

Qarabag FK Europa Conference League form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Qarabag FK form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Stephen Glass pictured during his time in interim charge of Atlanta United in September 2020© Reuters

Glass is expected to be forced into at least one change, with Connor McLennan being substituted before the break at Hearts.

Jay Emmanuel-Thomas appears most likely to be brought into the Aberdeen starting lineup, but Ryan Hedges and Considine remain on the sidelines.

Jonny Hayes only lasted 45 minutes at the weekend, and his absence would lead to a further rethink for Glass.

Barring any late issues, Gurbanov will see little reason to make any alterations to the team which started the first leg.

Taking that approach would result in Gurbanli dropping back down to the substitutes' bench.

Aberdeen possible starting lineup:
Lewis; Ramsay, Gallagher, McCrorie, Hayes; Brown, Ferguson; Ojo, Jenks, Emmanuel-Thomas; Ramirez

Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Mahammadaliyev; Huseynov, Medina, Medvedev, Bayramov, Zoubir, Romero, Malinowski, Andrade, Qarayev, Sheydayev


SM words green background

We say: Aberdeen 1-1 Qarabag FK

Regardless of how this match pans out on Thursday evening, we do not expect many goals.

Aberdeen will want to attack from the off in a bid to make a statement, but Qarabag's greater experience in European competition could prove crucial as the game progresses.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberdeen win with a probability of 55.22%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 23.11% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aberdeen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (5.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Aberdeen vs Qarabag FK

Aberdeen
61.2%
Draw
20.9%
Qarabag FK
17.9%
67
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General view of Aberdeen's Pittodrie Stadium from 2008
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