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Preview: Jelena Ostapenko vs. Naomi Osaka - prediction, form, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's US Open first-round match between Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka face off in Tuesday's US Open first-round match in one of the mouthwatering ties of the women's singles draw.

Both women are previous Grand Slam champions, with the Latvian notching the 2017 French Open and Osaka claiming two of her four Slam titles in three years in New York in 2018 and 2020.


Match preview

Jelena Ostapenko in action at Wimbledon on July 8, 2024© Reuters

After several years of exiting the Slams in the opening three rounds, Ostapenko has reached the quarter-finals three times in her last seven Slam appearances.

The No. 10 seed advanced to the last eight of both hard-court Majors in 2023 and made it to the quarters at Wimbledon recently for the first time since 2018, further showcasing her return to form after years of struggling.

The 27-year-old's run to the last eight in New York in 2023 ended years of failing to progress beyond the third round where she defeated defending champion Iga Swiatek in round four before falling to eventual winner Coco Gauff in straight sets.

Ostapenko's hard-hitting style should pose problems for Osaka — and vice versa — and their match-up could be one of the finest in the US Open's opening round this year.

However, the Latvian's preparation for the final Slam of the year has been underwhelming, as evidenced by early losses in the Canadian Open and Cincinnati.

Naomi Osaka in action at the French Open on May 26, 2024© Reuters

Her Japanese opponent is no stranger to the American crowd, having secured two of her four Slam victories at Flushing Meadows in 2018 and 2020, beating Serena Williams in the former and Victoria Azarenka in the latter.

Williams (2012-2014) was the last woman to retain her US Open title, underlining the openness of the women's competition, where five different champions have reigned supreme in recent years.

Osaka, one of such champions between 2019 and 2023, hopes for a deep run in this year's tournament in her first appearance at the Slam since returning from maternity leave.

After three consecutive round-one exits — French Open (2022), US Open (2022) and Australian Open (2024) — and a pair of second-round exits at this year's Roland Garros and Wimbledon, the four-time Slam champion aims to better her recent showings on her return to New York.

The Wild Card must overcome a tough Ostapenko draw in the opening round to advance, and she must be cursing her luck at this year's Majors having faced Caroline Garcia Down Under, Swiatek in Paris (although she came awfully close to stunning the World No. 1) and an in-form Emma Navarro at the Championships.


Head To Head

French Open (2016) - First round: Osaka 6-4 7-5

Ostapenko and Osaka have faced off once previously, with the Japanese star beating her Latvian opponent in the opening round at the 2016 French Open — a year before Ostapenko's 2017 success.

A lot has changed since that clay court meeting, and little can be drawn from their only match-up eight years back.

Ostapenko has notched two titles in 2024 in Adelaide and Linz, with both instructively coming on hard courts.


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We say: Osaka to win in three sets

Despite Ostapenko's hard court success in 2024 — both wins came in the first two months of the year — and Osaka's pair of successes in New York, neither player heads into the fourth Major of the year in storming form, highlighted by early exits in Toronto and Cincinnati.

Their first-round meeting could go either way, but we are backing Osaka to claim the win in a match that could go the distance.

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