Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 50.14%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 23.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Iraq win it was 0-1 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.