Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 46.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 26.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (8.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malawi in this match.