Fresh off the back of holding Ivory Coast to a goalless draw, Mozambique take on Malawi at the Orlando Stadium on Tuesday.
The game, which sees two sides who met in July's COSAFA Cup go head to head again, will be played in South Africa, after CAF declared Malawi's Bingu National Stadium unfit to host the game.
Match preview
Malawi were denied a dream start in their hunt for a place in Qatar as they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Cameroon last Friday.
Former Porto striker Vincent Aboubakar and Gent defender Michael Ngadeu scored inside the first half hour as the Indomitable Lions cruised to all three points in their Group D curtain-raiser.
This followed a disappointing run in the COSAFA Cup, where they suffered a group-stage exit after picking up two draws and losing two of their four games in Group B.
The Flames have now failed to taste victory in each of their most recent six outings across all competitions, dating back to March's 1-0 win over Uganda in the Africa Cup of Nations qualifier.
While Malawi will be looking to end their poor run and get their qualifying campaign up and running, they face an opposing side who are unbeaten in seven of the last eight meetings between the sides, picking up five wins and two draws.
Mozambique, on the other hand, put on a superb defensive display in their group opener as they held two-time AFCON champions Ivory Coast to a goalless draw last Friday.
In a game where the Elephants controlled proceedings, a lack of ruthlessness in the final third alongside an inspired Ernan between the sticks for the Mambas ensured a share of the spoils.
Mozambique are now unbeaten in each of their last seven games in all competitions, picking up four wins and three draws since their 1-0 friendly defeat at the hands of Japan back in October 2020.
Tuesday's game is the first of two consecutive meetings between the sides, who are scheduled to face off again at the Estadio do Zimpeto on September 14.
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Team News
Following his lethargic display in front of goal against Cameroon, Baroka FC forward Richard Mbulu could make way to the bench as head coach Meke Mwase opts for more sting in attack.
Should that be the case, Khuda Muyaba, who turns out for Polokwane City in the South African GladAfrica Championship, could lead the Malawi attack after hitting two goals in their four COSAFA Cup outings.
Meanwhile, Goncalves could name an unchanged XI following his side's valiant display against the Elephants of Ivory Coast, meaning we could see a back four of Norberto Norberto, Reinildo Isnard Mandava, Zainadine Junior and Bruno Langa for the second game running.
Junior, who is currently 10th in the nation's all-time appearance charts, and goalkeeper Ernan were particularly in inspired form for the Mambas, and they will be ones to watch out for on Tuesday.
Nilton was impressive after coming on for Candinho shortly after the break last time out and the Costa do Sol midfielder could be rewarded with a place in the starting XI.
Malawi possible starting lineup:
Kakhobwe; Mzava, Petro, Chembezi, Sanudi; J Banda, Chimodzi; P Banda, Chester, Phiri; Muyaba
Mozambique possible starting lineup:
Ernan; Langa, Junior, Mandava, Norberto; Miquissone, Martinho, Cigano; Shaquille, Melito, Nilton
We say: Malawi 1-1 Mozambique
Malawi have suffered a slump in form over the last two months and are without a win in their last six games in all competitions.
Mozambique are also not in the best of form due to a poor showing at the attacking end of the pitch, where they have scored just twice in their last four games. We anticipate the spoils will be shared in this one as they are evenly matched on paper heading into the game.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 46.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 26.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (8.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malawi in this match.
