World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Jun 11, 2024 at 5pm UK

Orlando Stadium

Lesotho
0 - 1
Rwanda

Fothoane (26'), Mkwanazi (71')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Kwizera (45')
Bizimana (20'), Mugisha (63')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Lesotho and Rwanda, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lesotho

Last Game: Zimbabwe 0-2 Lesotho
Friday, June 7 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Rwanda

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Benin 1-0 Rwanda
Thursday, June 6 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	3	7
2	Libya	3	3	6
3	Rwanda	3	0	4
4	Equatorial Guinea	3	-6	0

Few would have expected these two teams to be leading the group after three weeks, and a win for either will put them in a very strong position when the competition resumes in March next year. However, with both sides being very evenly matched on paper, we cannot see a clear favourite here and feel that they will cancel each other out by the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 36.43%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.26%) and 1-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 1-0 (13.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Rwanda in this match.

Result
Lesotho	Draw	Rwanda
32.66% ( -0.16)	30.9% ( -0.11)	36.43% ( 0.27)

Both teams to score 39.72% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.11% (

0.3)

67.89% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.14% (

0.2)

85.86% (

-0.2)

Lesotho Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.71% (

0.05)

38.29% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.95% (

0.05)

75.05% (

-0.05)

Rwanda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.36% (

0.34)

35.63% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.59% (

0.35)

72.4% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Lesotho 32.66%

Rwanda 36.42%

Draw 30.89%

Lesotho	Draw	Rwanda
1-0 @ 13.09% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 6.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 2.08% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.63% Total : 32.66%	0-0 @ 13.64% ( -0.15) 1-1 @ 13.51% 2-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.39% Total : 30.89%	0-1 @ 14.07% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.97% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.42%