World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Second Round

Jun 7, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Tiburcio Carias Andino

Honduras
3 - 1
Cuba

Lozano (26'), Rodriguez (45+2'), Castillo (82')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Reyes (22')
Hernandez (52'), Angel Rodriguez (86'), Torrez Gutierrez (86')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Honduras and Cuba, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Honduras

All competitions

Last Game: El Salvador 1-1 Honduras
Wednesday, March 27 at 1am in International Friendlies

Current League A Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Jamaica	4	5	10
2	Honduras	4	7	7
3	Suriname	4	3	5
4	Cuba	4	-3	5
5	Haiti	4	-1	3
6	Grenada	4	-11	1

Cuba

All competitions

Last Game: Nicaragua 0-1 Cuba
Wednesday, March 27 at 1am in International Friendlies

Current League A Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Jamaica	4	5	10
2	Honduras	4	7	7
3	Suriname	4	3	5
4	Cuba	4	-3	5
5	Haiti	4	-1	3
6	Grenada	4	-11	1

During the previous Nations League campaign, the Cubans showed that they are a challenging team to break down defensively but have yet to impress when in possession versus some of the stronger CONCACAF sides, which is why we project a tight match but a narrow victory for the Hondurans. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honduras win with a probability of 84.86%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Cuba had a probability of 4.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Honduras win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.74%) and 1-0 (10.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.13%), while for a Cuba win it was 0-1 (1.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Honduras would win this match.

Result
Honduras	Draw	Cuba
84.86% ( 0.55)	10.96% ( -0.18)	4.17% ( -0.37)

Both teams to score 35.75% (

-2.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.19% (

-1.28)

36.8% (

1.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.02% (

-1.4)

58.98% (

1.4)

Honduras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.78% (

-0.14)

6.22% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

76.5% (

-0.38)

23.49% (

0.39)

Cuba Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

38.12% (

-2.48)

61.88% (

2.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

8.42% (

-1.24)

91.58% (

1.24)

Score Analysis

Honduras 84.86%

Cuba 4.17%

Draw 10.96%

Honduras	Draw	Cuba
2-0 @ 14.84% ( 0.69) 3-0 @ 13.74% ( 0.53) 1-0 @ 10.69% ( 0.58) 4-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.29) 5-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.24) 5-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.15) 6-0 @ 2.45% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.21) 6-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.16) 7-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 84.86%	1-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.28% Total : 10.96%	0-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.14) Other @ 1.09% Total : 4.17%