Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.98%) and 2-0 (5.12%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bulgaria would win this match.
