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Women's Super League | Gameweek 17
Apr 2, 2023 at 12.30pm UK
 

Arsenal Women
2 - 1
Man City Women

Maanum (62'), McCabe (74')
McCabe (10'), Walti (70')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Shaw (5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Women's Super League clash between Arsenal Women and Manchester City Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Arsenal Women 2-0 Bayern Munich
Wednesday, March 29 at 8pm in Women's Champions League

We said: Arsenal Women 1-1 Manchester City Women

The hosts have won six of their eight home league games this season, but we think they may have to settle for a point when they face a Man City side who will have fresher legs following Arsenal's European exploits in midweek. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 38.27%. A win for Manchester City Women had a probability of 37.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.72%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Manchester City Women win was 1-2 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Arsenal Women in this match.

Result
Arsenal WomenDrawManchester City Women
38.27% (7.494 7.49) 24.48% (0.119 0.12) 37.26% (-7.608 -7.61)
Both teams to score 59.69% (1.409 1.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.83% (1.061 1.06)43.17% (-1.056 -1.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.43% (1.039 1.04)65.57% (-1.033 -1.03)
Arsenal Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.52% (4.801 4.8)22.48% (-4.795 -4.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.97% (6.683 6.68)56.03% (-6.679 -6.68)
Manchester City Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77% (-3.142 -3.14)23% (3.147 3.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.2% (-4.847 -4.85)56.8% (4.851 4.85)
Score Analysis
    Arsenal Women 38.27%
    Manchester City Women 37.26%
    Draw 24.47%
Arsenal WomenDrawManchester City Women
2-1 @ 8.46% (1.075 1.08)
1-0 @ 7.72% (0.682 0.68)
2-0 @ 5.76% (1.189 1.19)
3-1 @ 4.21% (1.011 1.01)
3-2 @ 3.09% (0.507 0.51)
3-0 @ 2.87% (0.886 0.89)
4-1 @ 1.57% (0.532 0.53)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.315 0.32)
4-0 @ 1.07% (0.426 0.43)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 38.27%
1-1 @ 11.34% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 6.22% (0.246 0.25)
0-0 @ 5.17% (-0.244 -0.24)
3-3 @ 1.52% (0.122 0.12)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 24.47%
1-2 @ 8.33% (-0.861 -0.86)
0-1 @ 7.6% (-1.156 -1.16)
0-2 @ 5.58% (-1.494 -1.49)
1-3 @ 4.08% (-0.873 -0.87)
2-3 @ 3.05% (-0.172 -0.17)
0-3 @ 2.74% (-1.078 -1.08)
1-4 @ 1.5% (-0.503 -0.5)
2-4 @ 1.12% (-0.182 -0.18)
0-4 @ 1.01% (-0.537 -0.54)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 37.26%

Head to Head
Feb 11, 2023 12.30pm
Man City Women
2-1
Arsenal Women
Hemp (4'), Kelly (43')
Greenwood (56'), Hemp (58')
Souza (59')
McCabe (58'), Maritz (78')
Jan 23, 2022 6.45pm
Man City Women
1-1
Arsenal Women
Shaw (65')
Stanway (16'), Hemp (33'), Weir (90'), Walsh (90+6')
Heath (90+2')
McCabe (32'), Parris (55'), Miedema (83')
Sep 26, 2021 6.45pm
Arsenal Women
5-0
Man City Women
Miedema (10'), Little (23', 78' pen.), McCabe (60'), Williamson (90+4')
Maritz (67')

Stokes (45+3')
Feb 7, 2021 2.30pm
Dec 13, 2020 2.30pm
Man City Women
2-1
Arsenal Women
Mewis (30'), Weir (90+4', 90+4')
Miedema (3')
Beattie (31'), McCabe (87'), Nobbs (90+2')
rhs 2.0
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FT
Steelers
19-24
Browns
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