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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 4
Jan 2, 2021 at 6.05am UK
WIN Stadium
Sydney FC

Wellington
1 - 2
Sydney FC

Muratovic (45+1')
Payne (44'), Laws (67')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Nieuwenhof (29'), Brattan (55')
Warland (5'), Nieuwenhof (25'), Caceres (36'), Buhagiar (61'), Brattan (66')

Preview: Wellington Phoenix vs. Sydney FC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Sydney FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Wellington Phoenix host last season's A-League champions in their opening fixture of the new campaign on Saturday when they welcome Sydney FC to the Sky Stadium.

The Australian side will be hoping they can claim their third league title in a row in 2020-21, but they face a tough start to a potentially historic season.


Match preview

Sydney FC head coach Steve Corica pictured in December 2020© Reuters

New Zealand's capital club finished third in the A-League in 2019-20. They picked up 41 points from their 26 top flight matches, scoring 38 goals along the way.

However, the Nix were robbed of the chance to compete in the final series due to coronavirus restrictions.

Ufuk Talay's side strengthened significantly over the summer in an attempt to become the first side from New Zealand to win an A-League title.

Wellington lost 3-1 to Sydney the last time these two met, and the Sky Stadium outfit will want to exact some revenge over the weekend.

Steve Corica's side defeated Melbourne City 1-0 in last season's Grand Final to claim their fifth league title.

The Sky Blues could become the first team to ever record three consecutive A-League victories in 2020-21, and they will be hoping to get off to a strong start on Saturday.

Sydney had the joint-best attacking record and the best defensive record in the previous campaign showing their dominance over the division.

They have already experienced competitive action this season following their involvement in the AFC Champions League, recording one victory and two draws in their six group games.

Sydney FC form (all competitions): LLDLWD


Team News

Sydney FC players pictured in November 2020© Reuters

Talay has overseen a huge overhaul at Wellington over the summer. Six players have arrived at the Sky Stadium, and eight have headed in the opposite direction.

Former Brighton & Hove Albion and Queens Park Rangers striker Tomer Hemed was the star signing, with the 33-year-old striker expected to play a big part in the club's fortunes this campaign.

Reno Piscopo picked up a calf injury earlier this month and has been ruled out of this curtain-raiser.

Sydney have kept the majority of their title-winning squad together over the off-season and have promoted several youth players to the first team to improve competition for places.

The only major departure was talismanic forward Adam Le Fondre. The former Reading and Cardiff City striker joined Mumbai City, and the Englishman will be a big loss to Corica's men.

Adam Pavlesic is unavailable for the current champions after being involved in a serious clash in the AFC Champions League.

Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup:
Marinovic; McGarry, Hudson-Wihongi, DeVere, McGing; Davila, Devlin, Rufer, Muratovic; Ball, Sotirio

Sydney FC possible starting lineup:
Heward-Belle; King, Warland, Wilkinson, Grant; Brattan, Baumjohann, Ninkovic, Caceres; Barbarouses, Buhagiar


SM words green background

We say: Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Sydney FC

The two teams are fairly evenly matched coming into this one, and it should be a tight, evenly contested affair. The reigning champions have the better squad on paper and will benefit from already playing six competitive fixtures this season, which should give them the edge over Wellington on Saturday.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 37.56%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 37.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.35%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sydney FC in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Wellington vs Sydney FC

Wellington Phoenix
24.4%
Draw
9.8%
Sydney FC
65.9%
41
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