Hoping to go level on points with league leaders Ajax for the time being at least, high-flying Vitesse welcome Groningen to the Gelredome on Saturday.

Vitesse and Groningen have tasted defeat only once in their last five league games apiece, and are second and sixth respectively in the Eredivisie table as the season enters into its second half.

Match preview

The home side advanced to the last eight of the KNVB-Beker on Tuesday, narrowly edging out ADO Den Haag in a 2-1 home triumph courtesy of goals from Lois Openda and Matus Bero, before Amar Catic pulled one back for the away side.

Thomas Letsch's men have turned their home ground into a real fortress this term, going unbeaten in eight games in all competitions to date, while dropping points only once in that time.

In Eredivisie home matches, they have conceded the fewest number of goals, and have also picked up the joint-most points alongside Ajax, who have played a game more.

The loan signing of Armando Broja from Chelsea has proven to be fruitful, as the 19-year-old Albanian's six goals have helped propel Vitas to second place, and on course for their highest league finish since 1998.

Groningen were headed for a third home league defeat of the season last Sunday as they trailed Twente by two goals at half time through strikes from Dario Dumic and Thijs van Leeuwen, which came 10 minutes apart.

However, they showed real doggedness and resilience after the interval as they came back to earn a point in a 2-2 draw.

Nonetheless, those dropped points have increased the gap between Danny Buijs's men and Saturday's hosts to seven points, after Vitesse cruised past Emmen 4-1 a day earlier.

With Feyenoord and AZ - two of the teams ahead of them - set to meet this weekend, Trots van het Noorden have an opportunity to make up ground on those around them in the race for European football.

Vitesse Eredivisie form: DWLWWW
Vitesse form (all competitions): WLWWWW

Groningen Eredivisie form: WWLDWD
Groningen form (all competitions): LWLDWD

Team News

Vitesse will have to cope with the absence of Sondre Tronstad, who has not played since hobbling off midway through the first half in a 3-1 defeat to AZ last December.

Thomas Letsch shuffled the pack for the cup tie earlier in the week, but you can expect him to field his strongest side for this one.

Groningen are not without injury problems of their own as Arjen Robben still remains on the sidelines.

However, he could be back for the closing stages of the season, and it will be fascinating to see how much he still has left in him.

Vitesse possible starting lineup:
Pasveer; Wittek, Rasmussen, Bazoer, Doekhi, Dasa; Bero, Tannane, Bruns; Buitink, Broja

Groningen possible starting lineup:
Padt; Gudmundsson, Van Hintum, Itakura, Dankerlui; Matusiwa, El Messaoudi, Suslov; El Hankouri, Da Cruz, Strand Larsen

SM words green background

We say: Vitesse 2-1 Groningen

Vitesse's fantastic home record coupled with the momentum of three league wins on the bounce simply make them the favourites for this one, but we expect the away side to push them all the way in what should be a tight affair.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 50.42%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 26.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-2 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.